Thursday, March 24, 2011

Bucs Advance; Baseball Hits Wall, Drops Ball; Softball News

Say what you will about Justin Tubbs' consistency (and believe me, I will when postseason grades come out), the guy is really motivated to keep playing basketball, putting up 27 points on an unsuspecting Ohio team as ETSU rolled to an 82-73 win.

Nine points may not seem like a lopsided victory, but it certainly was on Tuesday night. Even though the Bucs got out-rebounded, there's a very clear reason for it: they were hitting their shots. When your team is shooting 53% from the field, 47% from beyond the arc, and 72% from the free throw line, you're firing on all cylinders.

There's also the matter (not a small one by any stretch) of Mike Smith's tremendous second half performance, as he shot 60% from the field and scored 24 points (with ten boards) without hitting a single three. The squad got a very strong bench performance (?!) from Sollazzo (12+7), and Isiah was okay up front. Heck, if they can keep winning on the backs of Tubbs and Smith, why not?

I love to complain. Finding weaknesses and exposing them is something I take pride in (because weaknesses cannot be mended until they are exposed), but there is not a single thing to complain about from Tuesday's performance. The squad put on a show, hit some clutch shots (especially Smith with two sets of huge free throws and the dunk to send the Bobcats away), and ran Ohio out of their own building.

So now it's on to Iona, who is perhaps most memorable for beating Richmond in double overtime earlier this season, a squad that will take on Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen tomorrow night. Quite a step up there, although Iona is still a 20-win program, but if someone can shut down Mike Glover (no easy task - no one in the MAAC could do it this year), then we're looking at the possibility of something the Bucs wouldn't have even dreamed of coming into this year: a postseason championship.


Baseball's pitching staff finally ran out of juice last weekend, and then again in the doubleheader against Radford. John Long had two disastrous starts, first on Friday (2.1 IP, 5 ER), and again on Tuesday (0.1 IP, 3 ER), and the Bucs never really were able to recover from either. There's also the matter of Bo Burton four innings (8 ER, 4 BB), and Bushey looked mortal back on Sunday (5 ER in 4 IP). In fact, the only solid start of the week belongs to... Clinton Freeman?

That's right! All the promise that Skole talked about with Freeman finally came through on the mound this week. After a solid relief effort in a failed comeback, the Davy Crockett product fanned six and gave up four in four innings on Tuesday. He has now retired eleven batters at the plate in his last 6.2 innings, and seems to have found himself a nice rhythm after struggling at the start of the year. Dak Rissman also had a very impressive relief effort in the Sunday win over the Dolphins, and deservedly got that decision.

At the plate, the squad has been carried by, of all people, Bo Reeder. Big Bo hit .364 on the week with FOUR homers and a dozen RBIs. Meanwhile, Green and Scruggs have gone .176 and .143 respectively, with Scruggs getting rung up seven times. Paul Hoilman hasn't been much better, hitting just .278 with six Ks, but after taking one yard on Tuesday in the second tilt with Radford, maybe he's starting to come out of his funk and will be strong this weekend. They'll need him to be if they want a shot at beating Stetson in DeLand.

Softball had a wild and crazy Monday in a split with King College, which really showed just how perfect Buccaneer pitching has to be in order to pick up wins: Shelby Morris made one mistake, got burned, and when the team went belly-up on offense, she got a loss she probably didn't deserve.

In fairness to the bats, Christy Kooch made a fantastic game-ending catch, showing shades of Willie Mays, as she charged into the outfield fence and held on to the ball. Still, the fact that ETSU could only muster two runs against a Division II seems a little ominous right on the edge of conference season.

Tonight, they'll gear up to face Lipscomb and Whitney Kiihnl, who is 18th in the nation in ERA and 8th in the nation in strikeouts. While that could be a tough match-up, this is still a very winnable pair of games. If the wind kicks up at Basler like it has in the past, I wouldn't be shocked to see ETSU come away with at least a split today.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Sweeeeeep for Softball; Bucs Draw Ohio in Quarters

It took extra innings to do it, but softball took both games of their doubleheader with Presbyterian yesterday. Pitching won ETSU those two games, as Jessica Duncan pitched yet another complete game, and Wolff and Morris combined for another strong effort against Presbyterian.

In the first game, Duncan was very solid. After a shaky fourth inning where she blew the shutout on back-to-back hits, then had the eventual second run reach on an error by Baird at third base, which was eventually walked home. Duncan dug deep to keep the team ahead, though, getting six of her seven strikeouts after the second run scored and earning a well-deserved victory - and rest.

In the second game, Wolff pitched a solid five innings, and had ETSU in a position to win another tight game. Shelby Morris came on in relief in the bottom of the sixth and gave up two hits and the tying run despite getting all three outs at the plate. The game went two extra innings, but she didn't yield another hit to the Blue Hose, but a run scored in the eighth on an error by Marlina Delisa to keep the game going. It's somewhat fitting, then, that Amy Campbell would score the winning run on a throwing error herself, with Baird's unassisted double play at third closing out the game.

Pitching is the reason ETSU won this game, unquestionably, but the bats seem to have found a rhythm, collecting 22 hits over these two contests. The catch? Only one of those hits went for extra bases. That lack of power is what's really hurting this squad. The table-setters are doing their jobs, though: Nicole Fox went 3/8 across the two contests, and Marlina Delisa seems to have found a new home in the two hole, going 4/7 with 2 RBIs. It's just a matter of finishing the job, and that won't get any easier in a conference that features more than a few quality programs, specifically Upstate, Stetson, Lipscomb, Jacksonville, and Mercer.

Speaking of tough jobs, ETSU will face Ohio in the quarterfinals of the CIT, despite the fact that Ohio got a bye through the second round. I have given up trying to figure out how this tournament works and am just going to go with it. Scouting report on Ohio to come later.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Reeder Makes Good on Homecoming, Makes History at TTU

Well, if you weren't a fan of Journey before tonight, you probably should be now.

Dylan Pratt's three-run homer into right-center capped a surreal five-run comeback in Cookeville, but it was Reeder who slammed the door on his hometown team by striking out the side for his nation-leading eighth save of the year.

Reeder was doing everything right tonight. He hit a solo shot to opening the scoring, recovered from a bobbled ball at third to go around the horn for a double play, and then legged out a two-out infield single to keep the game going.

Speaking of that ninth inning rally, how about Hoilman coming through with a clutch hit? After going 1/14 since the start of the UNF series, The Only Guy on the Planet who Likes Advanced Combinatorics hit a crucial RBI single into center field to set the stage for a man who is likely to get much less pitching once this team gets deep into conference play.

On the pitching side, everything went pretty well. A solid start from Booker followed up by two solid innings of work from Bo Burton (I still have nightmares about his massive collapse against Mercer last year) set things up for - as Skyler Barnett evidently referred to him - Scott McWinStealer, who shockingly couldn't deliver and got the hook after a third of an

I think this is a really important win for this team, psychologically. Having not won in Cookeville in fifteen years, to be able to do it in such a dramatic fashion almost gives one the impression that they might be destined for something special. Is this the Team of Destiny?

The answer is, of course, no: Destiny plays women's basketball.

Smith Spontaneously Combusts, Bucs Rout Paladins

Ka-BOOM!

This was the sound that rang out in front of a shockingly sparse crowd when Mike Smith went up for a two-handed dunk that brought Mike Smith to 30 points in a game for the first time in his career. Smith was all over the floor in the first half, with 21 of ETSU's 43 first-half points, at one point outscoring the entire Furman team. JT stepped in during the second half, found his feet and had one of his best games as a Buccaneer, scoring 20 points despite just hitting two threes the whole night. Smith's 32 points and 100% effort from the stripe both tied tournament records, as did Tubbs' five steals. The defense was there for these two as well, especially Smith, as Amu Saaka, an all-conference selection in the SoCon, had more fouls (4) than he did points (3). That's no small feat, and a big part of why this game turned out the way it did.

As impressive as their performances were, and as great as it was to blow Furman out (largest lead was 22 with 11:45 to go), this was hardly a perfectly played game for Bartow's crew. Zeke was invisible. Micah had five points and four turnovers, and fouled out on top of that. We're not exactly playing world-beaters the rest of the way, but this team can't afford to have one or two of its starters messing on the linens in every game. Not when we're getting eight bench points, with half of those coming from Sollazzo, who was swapped in favor of De'Shaud Johnson at the point. This was a move made more for sentimental reasons than tactical ones, but honestly, Johnson looked like he could have played the point more often. He only had five points, but also dished out four helpers and did not turn the basketball over. What a novel concept.

As enjoyable as it was to watch the "Mike Smith & Friends Show" last night, the "Friends" of that equation need to figure out how much more basketball they want to be playing. They've got just under a week to do it, but they have to realize that even though this is essentially the Meineke Car Care Bowl of college basketball, it's still the postseason. Maybe they should all eat breakfast with Justin Tubbs, since he has it figured out. Or maybe they could sleep in their extremely awesome gold uniforms. Have I ever mentioned that I love gold uniforms?

I. Love. Gold. Uniforms.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Upstate (WBK) to Postseason; Bucs to CBI; Bat & Ball News

So, as I had unfortunately expected, the Lady Bucs didn't land a spot in the WNIT; however, to add insult to injury, USC Upstate got an invite to the WBI, despite being a (statistically) far lower-caliber team than ETSU. The Lady Bucs have a significantly higher RPI, stronger schedule, and better scoring offense and defense. In fact, let's see how they stack up with the WBI field in RPI:

ETSU - 103

Cleveland State (151)
Wright State (157)
Idaho (165)
UAB (174)
Cal State Bakersfield (196)
Elon (154)
Eastern Illinois (201)
Sacred Heart (110)
Chicago State (192)
Manhattan (169)
Northern Colorado (214)
USC Upstate (289)
South Dakota (209)
Central Arkansas (182)
Buffalo (163)
IPFW (158)

As you can see, only one of those teams is on par with ETSU, and the rest are far below. This is a competition that ETSU could easily enter and win, giving their three healthy freshmen with any semblance of significant floor time (McIntosh, Miles, and Randall) some development time and postseason experience. This is a young team that could really use the experience, even in a smaller postseason tournament like this one. With the expansion of the WNIT to 64 teams, ETSU still not getting in is a bit disheartening, but with such a young team, I don't think that Kemp would decline an opportunity to keep them playing. Whether she did or not, we'll probably never know.

On the men's front, the Bucs are in the CBI tonight against [deep gritty voice] The Furman Paladins [/deep gritty voice]. These two teams are built in very similar ways. Both emphasize good defense, as ETSU and Furman allow 63.7 and 64.0 points per game, respectively, while both score exactly 69.0 points per game.

The two teams are also dependent on a single star. Mike Smith on one side, and Amu Saaka on the other. Guiding the Paladins to their first 20-win season in two decades, Saaka averaged 16 points and 6.6 boards per game, took 100 more field goals than any other Paladin, and was the only player on the team to hit 1000 minutes played. He's a threat from anywhere on the floor, leading the team in made and attempted three pointers, as well, and is an 87% free throw shooter. Logic would dictate that he'll be Smith's assignment on the night, and that will be a key match-up to watch. Actually, it will be THE key match-up. Jordan Miller and Noah States are certainly threats to score, but Tubbs should be more than able to handle Miller, and States' measurements are identical to Zeke's, meaning Zeke has the advantage.

ETSU SHOULD win this game. They've lost once on their home floor this year, and the team they faced was far, far better than Furman. Granted, the only teams of consequence that they played at home this year were Tennessee Tech and Jacksonville (the latter of whom, by the way, is also in this tournament, traveling to East Carolina), but this is the first postseason game the school has ever hosted, meaning there is a lot of significance and should be a lot of energy in the building. Hopefully, having an old SoCon team in the building will also help attendance, but the Paladins weren't really a huge draw back in the day, so I guess we'll have to wait and see.

On the baseball front, the Cardiac Bucs came away with a pair of ninth-inning rallies to sweep North Florida. Matthew Scruggs hit a rare game-winning triple in the top of the fourth on Friday that drove in what would prove to be the winning run, and then turned around and hit a two-run shot to give ETSU the lead in the top of the ninth on Saturday. Dylan Pratt (have I mentioned that this guy is awesome?) brought the house down with a three-run dinger on Sunday that gave the Bucs the sweep.

Scruggs went 5/12 with six RBIs and five runs scored, with a pair of homers - a solo shot and the aforementioned game-winning two-run shot - on Saturday. Pratt went just 2/8, but drove in five and scored two. There's also the matter of Derek Trent, who went 5/12 with 3 RBIs and a run scored, including a solo shot on Saturday and two doubles, one each on Saturday and Sunday.

On the hill, Bo Reeder earned that A-Sun Pitcher of the Week award, giving up just one hit in three innings, striking out two and picking up his fifth, sixth, and seventh saves in the sweep. I once joked that there was nothing long about John Long (standing at 5'10", and to that point having not lasted more than five innings), but he shut me up this weekend with a great performance on the hill, going 6.2 innings with just two earned runs allowed and 8 strikeouts. Bushey gave up four earned runs in 4.2 innings on Sunday, but continues to pad his strikeout numbers, adding five in his start for a team-leading 21 total on the season in just five appearances.

Overall, you have to like where the team is going. The squad has six wins in a row, offense coming from everywhere, and solid, consistent pitching (especially from the bullpen, which is very much needed), but there are a couple of sore spots. Kerry Doane made an error in every game this weekend. His field percentage is at .873, the worst on the team. What is it with this program and shortstops? Justin Tramble, Nick Belcher, Garrett May, and now Doane. Kerry was not this bad last year - he committed 19 errors the entire season. At this rate, he'll be halfway to that by the end of the Jacksonville series.

He's not the only one, either. Through 12 games, the team has committed a total of 23 errors. Niesman has five; Reeder has three. The team is fielding at a .951 clip, which isn't particularly good. This is not sustainable and will have to change before the team gets to the squads with the bats to make them pay, like, say, Jacksonville next weekend.

There's also the not-so-small matter of Paul Hoilman's struggles in this series. Paul Bunyan went 1/10 and struck out six times. I've struck out less than that with women (no, seriously). His timing might be off, or he could be trying to force things since no one wants to pitch to him - he was walked four times by the UNF staff and has gotten a free pass 16 times this year, which is more than double the next-highest Buc (Pratt has 6). Whatever the case may be, Paul has to get it together. There's no pressure yet, as we're still a long way away from the tournament, but we won't be dancing unless he's firing on all cylinders.

In other news, softball hosted the inaugural Buccaneer Challenge (which I erroneously called the Buccaneer Classic more times than I care to count) this weekend. They went 4-2 with a couple of unpleasant losses against Pittsburgh, but they've finally managed to find their offense.

Over all six games:
Henderson - .526 (7/19), 8 RBIs, 3 2B, HR
Baird - .476 (7/21), 13 RBIs, 2 2B, 3 HR
Lower - .389 (7/18), 3 RBIs, 2 HR
Campbell - .316, 7 RBIs, 2 2B, HR

The pitching numbers were a bit inflated by the losses to Pitt, but Duncan fanned 20 batters total and pitched two complete games, while Wolff had a one-hit shutout that was nearly a no-no against SC State, and both hurlers had ERAs under four, which is really good considering they were the two starters against Pitt and faced the brunt of the attack. Morris had the wost weekend statistically, mainly because she had mop-up duty against Pitt in both games, and they ate her alive.

Ultimately, though, I think this team is headed in the right direction. After losing four in a row, they've bounced back to win four of their last six, and the schedule should get a little easier now that they're moving into conference play, although a schedule with Lipscomb and Upstate as bookends may prove difficult.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Bush(ey)-Whacked; Bucs Postseason Hopes?

After Derek Bushey's fantastic start against UNC-Asheville, I wondered whether it would be something he could repeat. After five more excellent innings against [deep, gritty voice] the Furman Paladins [/deep, gritty voice], and I think we've found a new Sunday starter come conference season.

Bushey fanned six in five innings, giving up just one run en route to his first win of the year. The guy who inadvertently denied Bushey his first win, Ben Booker, came in and pitched a solid inning. Dak Rissman struck out two, but did give up a run in one inning of work, but it wasn't enough for [deep, gritty voice] the Furman Paladins [/deep, gritty voice] to catch ETSU, especially when Reeder came in and slammed the door on them, striking out three of the four batters he faced for his fourth save of the year.

Offense by committee also continues: Reeder 2/4 with 2 runs scored, Trent 2/4 with an RBI, John Long 3/4 with an RBI and a run scored. Hoilman was only 1/4, but drove in a run on his third double of the year, and Pratt went 0/2 but came around to score on a walk. The defense was also solid, committing zero errors. No, that's not a typo. This game has been recorded in the memories.

Speaking of memorable moments, the Baseball Bucs are, at the time of this writing, 10th in the nation in RPI. That's right, we're ahead of the likes of Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, last year's Cinderella TCU, and perennial powerhouse Cal State Fullerton.

We're also well ahead of most of the rest of the conference. Take a look:

ETSU - 10
Jacksonville - 31
Stetson - 35
Kennesaw State - 37
Belmont - 89
Campbell - 104
Lipscomb - 108
Mercer - 118
USC Upstate - 146
North Florida - 148

Before anyone completely dismisses this due to Mercer's placing, consider the teams the Bears have played. They've played just two squads in the top 100 and are 2-2 against them (2-1 against Belmont with an 8-5 loss to Georgia), so the ranking is totally out of place based on what Mercer has done.

As a conference, the A-Sun also ranks 6th in RPI, ahead of BCS conferences the WAC, MAC, Mountain West, Big East, and the Big Ten, and well ahead of the SoCon.

Speaking of the A-Sun's place among conferences, here's a look at some of the upcoming pieces here on BB:BE.

-The Atlantic Sun: Rising or Setting? Campbell's departure will mark the sixth since Samford left in 2004, but the conference has managed to stay afloat. When the moratorium on Division I entries lifts in 2012, what should the conference do?

-A Decade in Review: 2001-2011 - A look back at the best - and worst - moments of a decade of ETSU men's basketball, featuring a slew of previously unused metrics to analyze squads from years' past.

-Bucs' Final Season Grades (Pending Postseason) - Unlikely to arrive for the men's team until after the postseason, but if the women have a blank dance card, theirs will arrive sooner. We'll offer full analysis of each player that hit the floor for these two squads, which could open the door to another question: just what went wrong in Macon?

-Football (working title) - This debate feels endless. Some say football is an impossibility for a university in the heart of Big Orange Country; others say the lack of football is holding the university back. Is there a compromise to be had? We'll examine the reasons for the program's dissolution, scenarios for revival, and comparable situations at schools across the country.

Plus continued coverage of baseball and softball.

============================================

Time to look at the postseason picture for the basketball squads. It's still that time of year, after all. Since chivalry isn't dead just yet, let's look at the ladies first.








Women's Team
Record: 19-12 (15-5)
RPI: .5334 (103)
SOS: .5069 (130)
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-4
Record vs. RPI 51-100: 1-4
Record vs. RPI 101-200: 4-1
Record vs. RPI 201+: 14-3
Highest RPI: 88 (Week 16)
Lowest RPI: 128 (Week 9)
Key Wins: vs. Richmond (74)
Bad Losses: @ USC Upstate (189), @ North Florida (248), @ Campbell (259), vs. Jacksonville (215)

Sadly, I think the loss in the semifinals dashed any postseason hopes for the Lady Bucs. The teams they lost to - especially Campbell - don't really look that great when going through the application process for a WNIT at-large bid, and going 5-9 against the top 200 teams in the RPI doesn't bode well, either. Coach Kemp did really well to offset her weak conference slate with very high-quality non-conference opponents, but they still needed to win the conference if they wanted into the NCAA tournament. We'll see how things shake out, but I have a feeling their season is over.

Men's Team
Record: 21-11 (16-5 A-Sun)
RPI: .5458 (92)
SOS: .4926 (174)
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-1
Record vs. RPI 51-100: 1-5
Record vs. RPI 101-200: 9-3
Record vs. RPI 201+: 11-2
Highest RPI: 85 (Week 17)
Lowest RPI: 140 (Week 5)
Key Wins: @ Dayton (79), @ Mississippi State (115)
Bad Losses: @ USC Upstate (313), vs. Northeastern (180), @ Stetson (304)

Analysis: While the squad's 21 wins looks really impressive, half of them came against what are considered bottom-feeders by national standards, and against teams that were even slightly above them in the RPI, they really struggled.

This is obviously NOT an NCAA-caliber resume. I'm not sure it's even an NIT resume with the two awful conference losses to Stetson and Upstate, even if they were by one point. The Bucs have been extended a formal invitation to play in the CIT, which I firmly believe they should accept. This is a tournament geared towards mid-major schools, and the field is one they could probably have a great deal of success in. Other teams already invited include Tennessee Tech (who, as you may remember, got thrashed in the Mini-Dome on homecoming), Marshall, Air Force, and Davidson. Oh, wait, I forgot one:


[deep, gritty voice]the Furman Paladins.[/deep, gritty voice]

Saturday, March 5, 2011

Curtain Call for Basketball...

... or is it?

The run of multiple championships is over for both teams, but the postseason dream may not be dead. There is no way on Earth that the men's team doesn't play some kind of postseason basketball. 84 Division I programs have 20 wins, and with 128 postseason spots available outside the NCAA tournament, there's no way that the Bucs aren't playing somewhere. On strength of schedule, we're likely looking at a reasonably high seed in the CBI/CIT. The CIT is the better tournament, and we have a decent chance of advancing if our starters don't just completely give out.

Then again, that was the whole problem, wasn't it? With the exception of Smith and Isiah Brown, the starters completely tailed off when the squad made the postseason.

Something similar happened with the Lady Bucs, but they got strong performances from the right players at the right times. Washington stepped up against Lipscomb, and Belcher, despite picking up three early fouls, played her heart out against Jacksonville. Unfortunately for Tish, nobody else played well at all against the Dolphins. The solid cumulative numbers (15 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals), as Davis went 4/19 from the field. Pickwell, Randall, and Washington were a combined 7/27, and Washington had as many points as Pickwell and Randall combined. A lot of the talk may surround Washington's technical foul for punching the basketball late in the game, but when your team shoots 29% from the field and goes 1/13 from beyond the arc, you have no business winning a basketball game.

For the Ladies, not getting that 20th win stings. It might hurt their postseason chances, but they could still have a shot. Florida Gulf Coast gets the automatic bid to the WNIT for winning the conference, but ETSU could still garner an at-large bid. Apparently, there's also a WCIT tournament that started this year, and ETSU would almost certainly be going to that competition if it does exist, but I haven't been able to find any information on it whatsoever.

Baseball had a great comeback win against Upstate on Friday, but didn't get to build any kind of momentum after the Saturday game got rained out, and the Sunday game got snowed out. I'm curious as to when they'll reschedule these games. Surely they won't let conference tilts go unplayed, will they?

Softball is 1-3 going into today. Duncan pitched a complete game against Columbia, fanning 9 and giving up no earned runs. Mikayla Treadway was the only player with multiple hits. In the next game, they got blown out. Three errors didn't help, although they weren't the difference in a 10-3 loss to Villanova.

Errors DID burn the Lady Bucs against Arkansas, though, as Duncan pitched a complete game again and only gave up one earned run, but the Lady Bucs lost 4-1. Morris got the loss after walking five in the subsequent 9-1 loss to South Florida, despite giving up just two earned runs. Once again, the errors weren't the difference, but they made this loss look much worse than it should have been. Offense also continues to be an issue, as they mustered just three hits - and only struck out three times. As the Wendy's commercials used to say, "Where's the Beef?" This team needs more power. Irwin obviously hasn't had the chance to address this via recruiting, but he needs a slugger or two in the middle of the lineup if he wants this team to do some real damage to back up what has shaken out to be a pretty darn good pitching staff.

That's all for today. Congratulations to our new Atlantic Sun champions, Belmont and Stetson. Everyone saw Belmont coming from a mile away, but Stetson caught everyone by surprise with Victoria McGowan's half-court buzzer-beater. After that, though, I would be shocked if they hadn't won the whole thing. Good luck in the big dance.