Well, it's that time of year where teams start to put together plans for next spring and, for everyone except Jim Calhoun's UConn squad and Gary Blair's Texas A&M side, figure out where they went wrong in 2010-11. With that in mind, I think this is the best time to put out my evaluations of this year's ETSU squads. We'll start with the women, who were unceremoniously bounced from the conference tournament in the semifinals this year, ending a dream of four straight championships.
Personally, I think this was a team capable of much more than it achieved this year. This team could have won the conference title with ease; granted, they would have gone nowhere in the NCAA tournament, but they could have at least gotten one last title ring for Davis and Belcher. Their dependence on streaky outside shooting, lackluster defense in key situations and propensity for high volumes of turnovers proved to be their undoing. But were the parts greater than the whole? Have a look:
Tara Davis
33.7 MPG, .330 FG%, .299 3FG%, .818 FT%, 15.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 4.7 APG, 5.2 TOPG, 0.5 BPG, 2.3 SPG
10.64 EFF, -9.80 VAA, 3.69 VAR, .480 TSP, .382 EFG, .284 AST%, .198 TO%, .047 TRB%
When it was first announced that Tarita Gordon would miss the 2010-11 season with a knee injury, the weight fell on TD's shoulders to run the point. If you looked at the basic statistics, you'd say that she did just that; however, the more advanced numbers tell a much different story. Davis gave the ball away at nearly a 20% clip, which is an absurd number, even for a point guard (who is expected to get more touches and, thus, turn the ball over more frequently). Her .382 Effective Field Goal Percentage is deplorable, ahead of only Iesha Robinson among the players that qualified for this evaluation. Not unlike Allen Iverson (or Briana Williams, if you want a more relevant comparison), she scored so many points because she took so many shots; she had 108 more field goal attempts than her shooting guard, Natalie Pickwell.
It's funny that I say that now, because Davis would have made for a very effective shooting guard with Gordon at the point, and with all of her raw productivity, maybe that's where she should have been anyway. C
Destiny Mitchell
30.4 MPG, .518 FG%, .736 FT%, 14.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.6 APG, 2.5 TOPG, 2.2 SPG
21.42 EFF, 13.03 VAA, 25.19 VAR, .550 TSP, .518 EFG, .126 AST%, .145 TO%, .164 ORB%, .118 DRB%, .135 TRB%
I picked Destiny Mitchell over Briana Williams as my freshman of the year for more than a few reasons, none of which were related to our chosen university. Mitchell had the ability to completely take over a game in the way that very few other players in this conference can. She held on to the ball well, had active hands in the back court, and had the speed to take the ball back down the floor in transition. She also crashed the glass constantly in the offensive end; any player grabbing 16.4% of available offensive rebounds is an enormous boost to an offense, and that was something they missed when she got hurt. She missed the last seven games of the season with a dislocated knee cap, but that's something that should be fairly easy to recover from (although certainly painful), and if this year was any indication, she is ready to terrorize the Atlantic Sun for the next three years. I thought she was the best player on this team this year, and the numbers back me up on that. A+
Natalie Pickwell
29.5 MPG, .393 FG%, .398 3FG%, .852 FT%, 4.4 RPG, 0.8 APG, 1.3 TOPG, 0.7 SPG
12.50 EFF, -4.91 VAA, 6.89 VAR, .544 TSP, .506 EFG, .053 AST%, .109 TO%, .069 TRB%
The expectations for Pickwell this season were fairly low coming in to this season. After two quiet years a good ways down the bench, the Kingsport product finally found her stride this year, and went on a massive scoring tear in January. The three on her jersey definitely reflects her biggest strength, as her shooting statistics will clearly point out. Really, how many players at ANY level of basketball have a three-point percentage that's higher than their base shooting percentage? It's completely counter-intuitive, but I'm not going to complain. Having a player like that at the two spot is certainly not a bad thing, and after a very strong season this year, Pickwell still has an outside shot at 1,000 points for her career, and although she won't catch Michele DeVault's school record for career threes made, she could very easily have a DeVault-style closing to her tennure at ETSU.
The other big note on Pickwell is how well she values the basketball. Turnovers were a huge issue for the team this year, but Pickwell turned the ball over on just 11% of her touches, the best number on the team and one of the best in the conference (Kelsey Jacobson of FGCU leads the A-Sun in this stat, with a .089 Turnover Percentage). The big problem with pure scorers, though, is that they tend to run hot-and-cold. After a very solid swing against the Nashville schools, Pickwell went quiet, with her best total in the last three games of the year being 11 points in a narrow victory over Lipscomb in the first round of the tournament. Still, she exceeded my expectations this year, and if she continues to develop, she should be a major factor in her senior year. B
Latisha Belcher
26.3 MPG, .448 FG%, .693 FT%, 8.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.6 APG, 2.1 TOPG, 0.9 BPG, 1.9 SPG
17.56 EFF, 4.49 VAA, 15.00 VAR, .516 TSP, .448 EFG, .121 AST%, .173 TO%, .152 ORB%, .114 DRB%, .128 TRB%
Anyone who expected Tish to come back and dominate as a senior after two knee injuries had their hopes dashed. Frankly, I don't know why anyone would expect that. Those are probably the same people who expect ETSU to go to the second round of the NCAA tournament every year. Despite playing on two bad knees, Tish was still very solid in her final year. While hardly the pinnacle of senior productivity, she gave the team a strong presence on the glass that they very much needed in the absence of Mitchell, and she elevated her game at the right times to keep this team's title hopes alive. Case in point: in the Jacksonville game, Belcher picked up four fouls in the first half, and then came back and played 19 minutes without taking that last foul, going 4/6 from the field and 4/6 from the free throw line, grabbing five boards and FOUR steals to keep the team alive. She didn't have much left to give, but when the team needed her, she was able to rise to the occasion. It's a darn shame that she didn't get one last ring, but she certainly left the fans with some lasting memories, even in losing efforts. B+
Gwen Washington
25.4 MPG, .370 FG%, .157 3FG%, .847 FT%, 9.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.1 APG, 2.1 TOPG, 0.8 SPG
12.88 EFF, -3.59 VAA, 6.55 VAR, .452 TSP, .384 EFG, .165 AST%, .145 TO%, .104 ORB%, .089 TRB%
If you're looking for a player to give your team a lift off the bench, look no further than Gwen Washington. After losing her starting spot early in the campaign, Gwen found her form from the bench and really provided a big lift as the sixth man. Her shooting numbers are really poor, but she still managed to produce 9+5 per game off the bench, and was the best free throw shooter on the team. She got in the mix and fought for offensive boards, kept the turnovers down, and her efficiency numbers were better than Davis'. She'll be back in a starting role next fall, so she has to find her form on a more consistent basis, but I think this year was important for Washington's development. B-
Shawn Randall
17.4 MPG, .370 FG%, .262 3FG%, .724 FT%, 5.8 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.8 APG, 3.0 TOPG
4.29 EFF, -12.42 VAA, -5.46 VAR, .459 TSP, .403 EFG, .090 AST%, .300 TO%
I have a tendency to cut freshmen some slack, especially when they're pressed into early service due to injuries, which Shawn was. Randall showed flashes of real brilliance this year, particularly on Senior Day against JU, which gives hope for the future. What's really important for most freshman, though, is establishing what needs to be worked on going forward. Randall has to make smarter decisions with the basketball. That may mean taking fewer shots, passing the ball more and not trying to beat defenders one-on-one like most D1 players can in high school. It's tough to change a player's habits and instincts, and Randall picked up on some of it, but not all of it. She didn't have a great season, just an average one, but she did well enough to give hope for the future. C+
Tosha Austin
16.7 MPG, .447 FG%, .500 FT%, 2.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 0.4 APG, 1.4 TOPG, 0.7 BPG, 0.6 SPG
12.77 EFF, -2.48 VAA, 4.19 VAR, .459 TSP, .447 EFG, .042 AST%, .282 TO%, .094 ORB%, .149 DRB%, .129 TRB%
I would imagine that more than a few folks are disappointed in Austin's play this season. Certainly, the base numbers aren't great, even for a bench player, but Austin is very much a defensive specialist. Sure, she's not a great shooter or ball-handler by any stretch, but she was second on the team in blocks, pulled in a respectable 19 steals, and averaged nearly 5 boards a game off the bench. Tosha is not going to be a star, but she will be a solid role player for this team over the next two years. Her ability to shut down opposing post players will make her invaluable going forward. She's not quite there, but she's moving in the right direction. B-
Jasmine McIntosh
10.8 MPG, .404 FG%, .308 3FG%, .750 FT%, 3.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.3 APG, 0.8 TOPG,
11.00 EFF, -2.88 VAA, 1.43 VAR, .500 TSP, .472 EFG, .062 AST%, .192 TO%
A lot of what I've said for other players applies to J-Mac. Take smarter shots and value the basketball. 25 turnovers in her limited playing time is just ridiculous, and her 3.6 PPG does nothing to offset that. I'll cut her some slack because, like Randall, she's a freshman pressed into extended duty by injuries, but if she's going to take that many threes, she needs to be more accurate. C+
Iesha Robinson
10.2 MPG, .264 FG%, .200 3FG%, .593 FT%, 2.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 0.5 APG, 1.0 TOPG
6.11 EFF, -4.01 VAA, -1.30 VAR, .403 TSP, .367 EFG, .052 AST%, .325 TO%
Iesha didn't go on several key road trips late in the season. Personally, I think that's pretty indicative of how well she performed this year, as if the numbers aren't. The rebounding numbers are fine, but her shooting stats are poor by any standard. She averaged a turnover per game in ten minutes of playing time, and made an average of one possession's difference in a given contest on the offensive end, which wouldn't have mattered one way or the other in most of ETSU's games this year. D
Incompletes (>10 MPG)
Ashley Benedict
Ashley Miles
Akaycha Robinson
So there you have it: the ETSU women's basketball team in review in 2010-11. Tomorrow, it's time for the boys to come out to play one more time. And when I say "tomorrow," I really do mean tomorrow this time. No, seriously.
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