Well, it's that time of year where teams start to put together plans for next spring and, for everyone except Jim Calhoun's UConn squad and Gary Blair's Texas A&M side, figure out where they went wrong in 2010-11. With that in mind, I think this is the best time to put out my evaluations of this year's ETSU squads. We'll start with the women, who were unceremoniously bounced from the conference tournament in the semifinals this year, ending a dream of four straight championships.
Personally, I think this was a team capable of much more than it achieved this year. This team could have won the conference title with ease; granted, they would have gone nowhere in the NCAA tournament, but they could have at least gotten one last title ring for Davis and Belcher. Their dependence on streaky outside shooting, lackluster defense in key situations and propensity for high volumes of turnovers proved to be their undoing. But were the parts greater than the whole? Have a look:
Tara Davis
33.7 MPG, .330 FG%, .299 3FG%, .818 FT%, 15.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 4.7 APG, 5.2 TOPG, 0.5 BPG, 2.3 SPG
10.64 EFF, -9.80 VAA, 3.69 VAR, .480 TSP, .382 EFG, .284 AST%, .198 TO%, .047 TRB%
When it was first announced that Tarita Gordon would miss the 2010-11 season with a knee injury, the weight fell on TD's shoulders to run the point. If you looked at the basic statistics, you'd say that she did just that; however, the more advanced numbers tell a much different story. Davis gave the ball away at nearly a 20% clip, which is an absurd number, even for a point guard (who is expected to get more touches and, thus, turn the ball over more frequently). Her .382 Effective Field Goal Percentage is deplorable, ahead of only Iesha Robinson among the players that qualified for this evaluation. Not unlike Allen Iverson (or Briana Williams, if you want a more relevant comparison), she scored so many points because she took so many shots; she had 108 more field goal attempts than her shooting guard, Natalie Pickwell.
It's funny that I say that now, because Davis would have made for a very effective shooting guard with Gordon at the point, and with all of her raw productivity, maybe that's where she should have been anyway. C
Destiny Mitchell
30.4 MPG, .518 FG%, .736 FT%, 14.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.6 APG, 2.5 TOPG, 2.2 SPG
21.42 EFF, 13.03 VAA, 25.19 VAR, .550 TSP, .518 EFG, .126 AST%, .145 TO%, .164 ORB%, .118 DRB%, .135 TRB%
I picked Destiny Mitchell over Briana Williams as my freshman of the year for more than a few reasons, none of which were related to our chosen university. Mitchell had the ability to completely take over a game in the way that very few other players in this conference can. She held on to the ball well, had active hands in the back court, and had the speed to take the ball back down the floor in transition. She also crashed the glass constantly in the offensive end; any player grabbing 16.4% of available offensive rebounds is an enormous boost to an offense, and that was something they missed when she got hurt. She missed the last seven games of the season with a dislocated knee cap, but that's something that should be fairly easy to recover from (although certainly painful), and if this year was any indication, she is ready to terrorize the Atlantic Sun for the next three years. I thought she was the best player on this team this year, and the numbers back me up on that. A+
Natalie Pickwell
29.5 MPG, .393 FG%, .398 3FG%, .852 FT%, 4.4 RPG, 0.8 APG, 1.3 TOPG, 0.7 SPG
12.50 EFF, -4.91 VAA, 6.89 VAR, .544 TSP, .506 EFG, .053 AST%, .109 TO%, .069 TRB%
The expectations for Pickwell this season were fairly low coming in to this season. After two quiet years a good ways down the bench, the Kingsport product finally found her stride this year, and went on a massive scoring tear in January. The three on her jersey definitely reflects her biggest strength, as her shooting statistics will clearly point out. Really, how many players at ANY level of basketball have a three-point percentage that's higher than their base shooting percentage? It's completely counter-intuitive, but I'm not going to complain. Having a player like that at the two spot is certainly not a bad thing, and after a very strong season this year, Pickwell still has an outside shot at 1,000 points for her career, and although she won't catch Michele DeVault's school record for career threes made, she could very easily have a DeVault-style closing to her tennure at ETSU.
The other big note on Pickwell is how well she values the basketball. Turnovers were a huge issue for the team this year, but Pickwell turned the ball over on just 11% of her touches, the best number on the team and one of the best in the conference (Kelsey Jacobson of FGCU leads the A-Sun in this stat, with a .089 Turnover Percentage). The big problem with pure scorers, though, is that they tend to run hot-and-cold. After a very solid swing against the Nashville schools, Pickwell went quiet, with her best total in the last three games of the year being 11 points in a narrow victory over Lipscomb in the first round of the tournament. Still, she exceeded my expectations this year, and if she continues to develop, she should be a major factor in her senior year. B
Latisha Belcher
26.3 MPG, .448 FG%, .693 FT%, 8.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.6 APG, 2.1 TOPG, 0.9 BPG, 1.9 SPG
17.56 EFF, 4.49 VAA, 15.00 VAR, .516 TSP, .448 EFG, .121 AST%, .173 TO%, .152 ORB%, .114 DRB%, .128 TRB%
Anyone who expected Tish to come back and dominate as a senior after two knee injuries had their hopes dashed. Frankly, I don't know why anyone would expect that. Those are probably the same people who expect ETSU to go to the second round of the NCAA tournament every year. Despite playing on two bad knees, Tish was still very solid in her final year. While hardly the pinnacle of senior productivity, she gave the team a strong presence on the glass that they very much needed in the absence of Mitchell, and she elevated her game at the right times to keep this team's title hopes alive. Case in point: in the Jacksonville game, Belcher picked up four fouls in the first half, and then came back and played 19 minutes without taking that last foul, going 4/6 from the field and 4/6 from the free throw line, grabbing five boards and FOUR steals to keep the team alive. She didn't have much left to give, but when the team needed her, she was able to rise to the occasion. It's a darn shame that she didn't get one last ring, but she certainly left the fans with some lasting memories, even in losing efforts. B+
Gwen Washington
25.4 MPG, .370 FG%, .157 3FG%, .847 FT%, 9.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.1 APG, 2.1 TOPG, 0.8 SPG
12.88 EFF, -3.59 VAA, 6.55 VAR, .452 TSP, .384 EFG, .165 AST%, .145 TO%, .104 ORB%, .089 TRB%
If you're looking for a player to give your team a lift off the bench, look no further than Gwen Washington. After losing her starting spot early in the campaign, Gwen found her form from the bench and really provided a big lift as the sixth man. Her shooting numbers are really poor, but she still managed to produce 9+5 per game off the bench, and was the best free throw shooter on the team. She got in the mix and fought for offensive boards, kept the turnovers down, and her efficiency numbers were better than Davis'. She'll be back in a starting role next fall, so she has to find her form on a more consistent basis, but I think this year was important for Washington's development. B-
Shawn Randall
17.4 MPG, .370 FG%, .262 3FG%, .724 FT%, 5.8 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.8 APG, 3.0 TOPG
4.29 EFF, -12.42 VAA, -5.46 VAR, .459 TSP, .403 EFG, .090 AST%, .300 TO%
I have a tendency to cut freshmen some slack, especially when they're pressed into early service due to injuries, which Shawn was. Randall showed flashes of real brilliance this year, particularly on Senior Day against JU, which gives hope for the future. What's really important for most freshman, though, is establishing what needs to be worked on going forward. Randall has to make smarter decisions with the basketball. That may mean taking fewer shots, passing the ball more and not trying to beat defenders one-on-one like most D1 players can in high school. It's tough to change a player's habits and instincts, and Randall picked up on some of it, but not all of it. She didn't have a great season, just an average one, but she did well enough to give hope for the future. C+
Tosha Austin
16.7 MPG, .447 FG%, .500 FT%, 2.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 0.4 APG, 1.4 TOPG, 0.7 BPG, 0.6 SPG
12.77 EFF, -2.48 VAA, 4.19 VAR, .459 TSP, .447 EFG, .042 AST%, .282 TO%, .094 ORB%, .149 DRB%, .129 TRB%
I would imagine that more than a few folks are disappointed in Austin's play this season. Certainly, the base numbers aren't great, even for a bench player, but Austin is very much a defensive specialist. Sure, she's not a great shooter or ball-handler by any stretch, but she was second on the team in blocks, pulled in a respectable 19 steals, and averaged nearly 5 boards a game off the bench. Tosha is not going to be a star, but she will be a solid role player for this team over the next two years. Her ability to shut down opposing post players will make her invaluable going forward. She's not quite there, but she's moving in the right direction. B-
Jasmine McIntosh
10.8 MPG, .404 FG%, .308 3FG%, .750 FT%, 3.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.3 APG, 0.8 TOPG,
11.00 EFF, -2.88 VAA, 1.43 VAR, .500 TSP, .472 EFG, .062 AST%, .192 TO%
A lot of what I've said for other players applies to J-Mac. Take smarter shots and value the basketball. 25 turnovers in her limited playing time is just ridiculous, and her 3.6 PPG does nothing to offset that. I'll cut her some slack because, like Randall, she's a freshman pressed into extended duty by injuries, but if she's going to take that many threes, she needs to be more accurate. C+
Iesha Robinson
10.2 MPG, .264 FG%, .200 3FG%, .593 FT%, 2.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 0.5 APG, 1.0 TOPG
6.11 EFF, -4.01 VAA, -1.30 VAR, .403 TSP, .367 EFG, .052 AST%, .325 TO%
Iesha didn't go on several key road trips late in the season. Personally, I think that's pretty indicative of how well she performed this year, as if the numbers aren't. The rebounding numbers are fine, but her shooting stats are poor by any standard. She averaged a turnover per game in ten minutes of playing time, and made an average of one possession's difference in a given contest on the offensive end, which wouldn't have mattered one way or the other in most of ETSU's games this year. D
Incompletes (>10 MPG)
Ashley Benedict
Ashley Miles
Akaycha Robinson
So there you have it: the ETSU women's basketball team in review in 2010-11. Tomorrow, it's time for the boys to come out to play one more time. And when I say "tomorrow," I really do mean tomorrow this time. No, seriously.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Back Up To Speed
Well, the Blog has been rather quiet the last couple of weeks, although not much has been missed:
ETSU basketball mismanaged its way into a defeat at the hands of Iona in the CIT semifinals. Granted, this was an excellent Iona team, but I will never stop pointing out the six seconds that ticked off the clock while ETSU's front court sat on its hands. That situation right there cost that team the game. I hate the fact that fouling is utilized as a defensive strategy, but it's a fact of life, and they need to utilize it in a situation like that. Nobody on the floor was in foul trouble at the time, and you're only down by a point. If you have enough time after the free throws, you can get the ball in Mike Smith's hands and let your best player win you the game. I guess we'll never know what he could have done, and he'll fall just 18 points short of Tom Chilton at 6th on the all-time scoring list.
At the very least, Zeke broke the single-season record set by Zakee Wadood for blocks. He's chasing the all-time mark now, and it's well within his reach if he stays healthy his senior year.
In baseball, the Bucs exploded for a 10-run eighth inning in the opener against Florida Gulf Coast. Bo Burton actually picked up a save in that game, coming in with the tying run aboard in the top of the eighth after a great start from John Long. The Eagles then bounced back with a blowout win thanks to five errors yesterday. They're just under way as I type this. Bo Reeder has exploded in this series and reached 200 hits. He's hitting a sensational .356 and slugging a sensational .723. He leads the team in homers with TEN, and is second in RBIs with 32 (Pratt has 34). With the team hitting .310 and scoring 163 runs, the offense is great, and despite the enormous ERA numbers from the pitching staff, the staff has been okay. The issue has been defense. ETSU's .949 defense is the worst in the Atlantic Sun. Kerry Doane has 13 errors already, and is fielding a very poor .888. Reeder, for all his offensive prowess and mound dominance, is fielding an atrocious .830 with nine errors. Niesman is fielding .899 with nine bloopers of his own. Those numbers simply have to get better if this team wants to be better than a game above .500 in conference play. The A-Sun is simply too good not to exploit that kind of defense. We saw it on full display yesterday.
Softball has... well, it hasn't been pretty. Whitney Kiihnl was expected to dominate this team, and she did. And so did JJ Nelson. And Sarah Sigrest. And Olivia Kline, who threw the first complete game no-hitter in the history of Betty Basler Field (Shelby Morris and Marissa Hardy had combined for a perfect game previously). With the exception of two big wins against a very bad Belmont team and a promising start against a poor Appalachian State squad that got washed out before being made official, the squad has really struggled. The big sore spot hasn't been the offense, which is actually pretty average relative to other A-Sun teams (the bats are actually better than Lipscomb's on paper), but rather the defense. All of it.
The fielding defense is tenth in the conference in errors (56, ahead of Campbell) and fielding percentage (.941, ahead of Belmont). The pitching staff is last in A-Sun in runs allowed (206), earned runs (151), walks (121), doubles allowed (45), and homers allowed (39). They're also 10th in batting average against (.284, ahead of Belmont), and hit batters (23, ahead of Jacksonville).
The pitching struggles could not have been put on display any better than they were yesterday in the second game of the North Florida series. With two outs in her pocket in the top of the seventh and looking to close out a fantastic performance in which she had given up only one run on three hits, Morris came unraveled. I could spend hours trying to find the eloquence to describe this sequence of pitches, but I think I'll just do it this way and let you imagine how this went down:
Fielders Choice P to 3B (2 outs)
Wild pitch (Runners at second and third)
Wild pitch (R, 2-2)
Walk
Duncan to P for Morris
HBP (Bases Loaded)
Walk (R, 3-2 UNF)
Morris to P for Duncan
Walk (R, 4-2 UNF)
Walk (R, 5-2 UNF)
Wolff to P for Morris
Ground out to SS
Four runs on no hits, no errors, three left on base.
This reminds me of something Keanu Reeves said in The Replacements. To paraphrase:
Something goes wrong. And you try to fight against it, but then another thing goes wrong. And another. And another. And the harder you fight against it, the faster you sink, until you're in over your head, just like quicksand.
There's a lot of truth in that (not just in sports, but in life, although that's beyond our context on BB:BE). It happened to Jean Van de Velde in the 1999 British Open, and this collapse by Morris was every bit as painful to watch. I recognize that pitchers are competitive and want to win games on their own, but if you're having a hard time hitting your spots down low, you have to throw the batters something they can put in play and put some trust in your defense. Even if you have to throw it right down the middle, you're pitching to the bottom of the order and it's not prudent to try to dance around them.
There are moments that define your season, for better or worse. This is one of those moments for Brad Irwin's squad. When they put themselves in a great position to win games, clicking on all cylinders, Murphy's Law kicks in and they get saddled with a loss when they should have had a win. Still, this team can't give up on their season just yet. They still have a chance for a sweep against Stetson next weekend, and then again when they take on Mercer later. If they can play .500 in conference the rest of the way, they have a good shot at making the conference tournament, and anything can happen once you get there.
Men's soccer is in action today. They took on Lincoln Memorial earlier, and will play Milligan at 6:30 tonight in the final home game of their spring season.
And before I forget (because they deserve far more coverage than I have given them this year), big congratulations are in order t
o the men's and women's tennis squads. The men wrapped up at least a share of the regular season title yet again with UNF (it's an outright title if Jacksonville beats UNF on April 10). The women wrapped up the outright regular season crown with their win over Mercer yesterday. Both teams finished 9-1 in regular season play and will gear up for the Atlantic Sun tournaments in sunny DeLand, Florida. After my recent clashes with the weather out at Basler Field, I don't blame them for heading south.
ETSU basketball mismanaged its way into a defeat at the hands of Iona in the CIT semifinals. Granted, this was an excellent Iona team, but I will never stop pointing out the six seconds that ticked off the clock while ETSU's front court sat on its hands. That situation right there cost that team the game. I hate the fact that fouling is utilized as a defensive strategy, but it's a fact of life, and they need to utilize it in a situation like that. Nobody on the floor was in foul trouble at the time, and you're only down by a point. If you have enough time after the free throws, you can get the ball in Mike Smith's hands and let your best player win you the game. I guess we'll never know what he could have done, and he'll fall just 18 points short of Tom Chilton at 6th on the all-time scoring list.
At the very least, Zeke broke the single-season record set by Zakee Wadood for blocks. He's chasing the all-time mark now, and it's well within his reach if he stays healthy his senior year.
In baseball, the Bucs exploded for a 10-run eighth inning in the opener against Florida Gulf Coast. Bo Burton actually picked up a save in that game, coming in with the tying run aboard in the top of the eighth after a great start from John Long. The Eagles then bounced back with a blowout win thanks to five errors yesterday. They're just under way as I type this. Bo Reeder has exploded in this series and reached 200 hits. He's hitting a sensational .356 and slugging a sensational .723. He leads the team in homers with TEN, and is second in RBIs with 32 (Pratt has 34). With the team hitting .310 and scoring 163 runs, the offense is great, and despite the enormous ERA numbers from the pitching staff, the staff has been okay. The issue has been defense. ETSU's .949 defense is the worst in the Atlantic Sun. Kerry Doane has 13 errors already, and is fielding a very poor .888. Reeder, for all his offensive prowess and mound dominance, is fielding an atrocious .830 with nine errors. Niesman is fielding .899 with nine bloopers of his own. Those numbers simply have to get better if this team wants to be better than a game above .500 in conference play. The A-Sun is simply too good not to exploit that kind of defense. We saw it on full display yesterday.
Softball has... well, it hasn't been pretty. Whitney Kiihnl was expected to dominate this team, and she did. And so did JJ Nelson. And Sarah Sigrest. And Olivia Kline, who threw the first complete game no-hitter in the history of Betty Basler Field (Shelby Morris and Marissa Hardy had combined for a perfect game previously). With the exception of two big wins against a very bad Belmont team and a promising start against a poor Appalachian State squad that got washed out before being made official, the squad has really struggled. The big sore spot hasn't been the offense, which is actually pretty average relative to other A-Sun teams (the bats are actually better than Lipscomb's on paper), but rather the defense. All of it.
The fielding defense is tenth in the conference in errors (56, ahead of Campbell) and fielding percentage (.941, ahead of Belmont). The pitching staff is last in A-Sun in runs allowed (206), earned runs (151), walks (121), doubles allowed (45), and homers allowed (39). They're also 10th in batting average against (.284, ahead of Belmont), and hit batters (23, ahead of Jacksonville).
The pitching struggles could not have been put on display any better than they were yesterday in the second game of the North Florida series. With two outs in her pocket in the top of the seventh and looking to close out a fantastic performance in which she had given up only one run on three hits, Morris came unraveled. I could spend hours trying to find the eloquence to describe this sequence of pitches, but I think I'll just do it this way and let you imagine how this went down:
Fielders Choice P to 3B (2 outs)
Wild pitch (Runners at second and third)
Wild pitch (R, 2-2)
Walk
Duncan to P for Morris
HBP (Bases Loaded)
Walk (R, 3-2 UNF)
Morris to P for Duncan
Walk (R, 4-2 UNF)
Walk (R, 5-2 UNF)
Wolff to P for Morris
Ground out to SS
Four runs on no hits, no errors, three left on base.
This reminds me of something Keanu Reeves said in The Replacements. To paraphrase:
Something goes wrong. And you try to fight against it, but then another thing goes wrong. And another. And another. And the harder you fight against it, the faster you sink, until you're in over your head, just like quicksand.
There's a lot of truth in that (not just in sports, but in life, although that's beyond our context on BB:BE). It happened to Jean Van de Velde in the 1999 British Open, and this collapse by Morris was every bit as painful to watch. I recognize that pitchers are competitive and want to win games on their own, but if you're having a hard time hitting your spots down low, you have to throw the batters something they can put in play and put some trust in your defense. Even if you have to throw it right down the middle, you're pitching to the bottom of the order and it's not prudent to try to dance around them.
There are moments that define your season, for better or worse. This is one of those moments for Brad Irwin's squad. When they put themselves in a great position to win games, clicking on all cylinders, Murphy's Law kicks in and they get saddled with a loss when they should have had a win. Still, this team can't give up on their season just yet. They still have a chance for a sweep against Stetson next weekend, and then again when they take on Mercer later. If they can play .500 in conference the rest of the way, they have a good shot at making the conference tournament, and anything can happen once you get there.
Men's soccer is in action today. They took on Lincoln Memorial earlier, and will play Milligan at 6:30 tonight in the final home game of their spring season.
And before I forget (because they deserve far more coverage than I have given them this year), big congratulations are in order t
o the men's and women's tennis squads. The men wrapped up at least a share of the regular season title yet again with UNF (it's an outright title if Jacksonville beats UNF on April 10). The women wrapped up the outright regular season crown with their win over Mercer yesterday. Both teams finished 9-1 in regular season play and will gear up for the Atlantic Sun tournaments in sunny DeLand, Florida. After my recent clashes with the weather out at Basler Field, I don't blame them for heading south.
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